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  • 城镇化
  • 文章编号:1009-6000(2016)08-0052-08
  • 中图分类号:F290    文献标识码:B
  • 项目基金:国家自然科学基金项目:长江三角洲城乡转型的理论建构(41071105);国家自然科学基金项目:景观系统突变的级联效应研究(41271197)。
  • 作者简介:杨彩萍,南京师范大学地理科学学院硕士研究生; 汤茂林,通讯作者,南京师范大学地理科学学院教授,江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心。
  • 江苏省“四化”协调发展及空间格局演化分析
  • The Coordina t ion Development of Urbani z a t ion, Industrialization, Modernization of Agriculture and Informationization and the Evolution of the Spatial Pattern in Jiangsu Province
  • 浏览量:
  • 杨彩萍 汤茂林
  • YANG Caiping TANG Maolin
  • 摘要:
    江苏省地级市为研究对象,选取了2003-2012 年10 年的城镇化工业化农业现代化信息化各指标数据,建立耦合度模型,研究江苏省“四化”的协调发展状况,并利用经典回归分析模型对“四化”协调的影响因素进行了初步的探讨。结果表明:(1)江苏省信息化指数在不断地增长,整体趋势按照苏南、苏中、苏北呈现阶梯式地下降;工业化水平整体上较其他三化增长缓慢,苏北地区工业化指数变化最大,虽然在研究前期苏北地区的工业化程度较低,甚至低于全省平均水平,但是增长速度很快;城镇化水平总体上较其他“三化”起点较高,发展速度快,发展程度也较高,从三大区域的发展水平来看,这10 年间增长速度均很快,在发展前期苏中的城镇化遥遥领先,但是在发展后期,其速度有所减慢,城镇化的程度低于苏南地区。(2)从耦合度来看,在这10 年间各地级市的耦合协调度均处于高水平耦合状态,且苏南地区的耦合性是比较稳定的,苏北和苏中均经历了磨合阶段向耦合阶段的跳跃,但是从协调发展度来看,这10 年间江苏省各地级市的协调发展度还处于低水平状态。(3)就空间角度而言,协调发展度逐渐由2003 年的“南高北低”的格局向2012 年的“中间低四周高”的格局转变,在这10 年,协调发展度逐渐由南向北由内陆向沿海转移。(4)各个系统对综合发展度的作用方向均为正,即起着促进作用,但是作用的强度在不同的年份有所差异,总的来说农业现代化工业化的驱动作用在不断下降,而信息化的驱动作用在不断提升,城镇化对协调发展度的作用很低。
  • 关键词:
    农业现代化工业化城镇化信息化耦合协调江苏省
  • Abstract: Based on the data of urbanization, industrialization, modernization of agriculture, informatization of the prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu province between 2003 and 2012, we explore the “four modernizations” coordination development of the province with coupling model, and also the influencing factors by using classical regression analysis model. The results indicate that: (1) the informatization index is continuingly growing in Jiangsu province, the overall trend presents multistep down from Sunan to Subei; the overall level of industrialization is slower than other three (urbanization, informatization and modernization of agriculture). As to the industrialization index changes, the largest is Subei while at the early stage the index of industrialization in Subei is low, and even lower than the entire province average level, but growing fast; urbanization is generally higher than other three aspects and it has higher development speed, development degree. The urbanization growth rate of the decade is quickly from regional development level. Also the development of urbanization is ahead at the early stage in Suzhong, but its speed is slow in the late stage, even the urbanization level is lower than the Sunan region. (2) The coupling coordination degree of prefecture level in the study period is in a state of high degree, the coupling level in Sunan region is relatively stable, while the northern and the middle have jumped from the running-in stage to coupling phase. However, from the point of the coordinated development degree, each prefecture level is still in a low state. (3) In terms of space angle, the pattern of coordinated development degree has changed from “north-high and south-low” to “middle-low and south and north higher” and gradually transfers from the south to the north, from the inland to the coastal. (4) Each system is a positive contributor to the comprehensive development of the degree, but the intensity has differences in different times. In general, the driving role of the agricultural and industrial is declining, while the informatization drive effect is rising, and the effect of urbanization is low.
  • Key words: agricultural modernization; industrialization; urbanization; informatization; the coupling coordination; Jiangsu province
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