- 规划与建设
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2025)10-0079-07
- 中图分类号：F294 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2025.10.012
- 项目基金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于高速公路大数据与多元关系网络的川渝城市群货流网络格局与机理研究”（41601149）；国家社会科学基金项目“县域尺度山地乡村人居环境发展区划与治理模式研究”（19XGL027）；重庆市自然科学基金项目“基于微观视角的区域制造业地理集聚与分散：方法与实证”（cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0290）。
- 作者简介：易兴（1999—），重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院，硕士研究生；
高鑫（1982—），通信作者，重庆师范大学城乡规划与人居环境研究所，博士，教授。
- 西部山地城市养老服务设施配置现状与需求预测——以重庆市为例
- Current Situation and Demand Forecast of Elderly Care Facilities in Mountainous Cities of Western China: A Case Study of Chongqing
- 易兴 高鑫
- YI Xing GAO Xin
- 摘要：
在本地老龄人口和返乡老龄人口的双重压力胁迫下，以重庆为代表的中西部传统民工输出地区老龄化形势严峻。因此，评估该地区养老设施空间配置合理性具有重要现实意义。研究结合重庆地形特点，考虑坡度对服务半径的影响，采用改进的两步移动搜索法评测各街道和乡镇养老服务设施的可达性，并运用 GM(1,1) 模型预测未来 5 年老年人口数量及比例，进而估算养老床位需求。结果表明：重庆市养老设施空间分布极不均衡，呈现“单中心集聚，多节点分散”的格局；大部分区县的养老床位与老年人口需求大致匹配，但街道乡镇的床位可达性普遍较低；预计未来 5 年内，重庆市老年人数量与占比将持续上升，至 2028 年所需养老床位将超过 25 万张。除沙坪坝区与忠县，其他区县均需增加床位供给，以满足日益增长的养老需求。 - 关键词：
养老服务机构；两步移动搜索法；可达性；床位预测 - Abstract: Under the dual pressure of the local aging population and the returning elderly population, the aging situation in the traditional migrant worker export areas in central and western China, represented by Chongqing, is severe. Therefore, evaluating the spatial configuration of elderly care facilities in this region is of significant practical importance. This study takes into account the topographic characteristics of Chongqing, considers the effect of slope on service radius, uses an improved two-step floating catchment area method to evaluate the accessibility of elderly care facilities in each street and township, and applies the GM(1,1) model to predict the number and proportion of the elderly population in the next five years, and then estimates the demand for elderly care beds. The results show that the spatial distribution of elderly care facilities in Chongqing is highly uneven, with a “single-center agglomeration and multiple-node dispersion” pattern. In most districts and counties, the number of elderly care beds roughly matches the demand from the elderly population, but accessibility to beds at the street and township levels is generally low. It is projected that over the next five years, the number and proportion of elderly people in Chongqing will continue to rise, and by 2028, more than 250000 elderly care beds will be required. Except for Shapingba district and Zhong county, other districts and counties will need to increase bed supply to meet the growing demand for elderly care.
- Key words: elderly care institutions; two-step floating catchment area method; accessibility; bed demand forecasting