- 应对新冠肺炎疫情的城市规划与治理策略
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2020)10-0020-10
- 中图分类号：TU984 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2020.10.003
- 项目基金：国家人才计划支持项目城市规划智能决策关键支持技术（D1218006）；湖北省技术创新专项基金（2017ADC073）。
- 作者简介：郑天铭，华中科技大学建筑与城市规划学院，华中科技大学智慧规划与设计协同创新工程中心，硕士研究生；
刘合林，通信作者，博士，华中科技大学建筑与城市规划学院，华中科技大学智慧规划与设计协同创新工程中心，教授。
- 影响社区新冠肺炎疫情的建成环境要素探究 ——以武汉市为例
- Exploration of the Bui lt-Environmental Elements that Influence the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic on Community Scale: A Case Study of Wuhan, China
- 浏览量：
- 郑天铭 刘合林
- ZHENG Tianming LIU Helin
- 摘要：
现代城市规划起源与应对城市卫生和健康问题密切相关，新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19，简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情暴发使其成为城市规划领域关注焦点。如何采用规划工具来预防类似新冠肺炎这样的疫情成为当前急需解决的问题。实践经验表明，社区在有效预防疫情过程中发挥着关键作用。然而，社区尺度上，哪些受规划工具调控的建成环境要素是影响疫情的关键依然缺乏详实的量化验证，基于此，文章以武汉市为例，探究两者的相关关系。首先，基于武汉市疫情防控政策的推行时间，立足新冠肺炎疫情的邻近扩散特征，从传染源、传播途径和规划应对工具构建初步解释模型。其次，利用探索性回归分析识别各影响因素特征，确定两项始终具有显著影响且通过残差检验的建成环境要素：社区建筑密度与社区生活圈绝对褶皱度。最后，对唯一通过模型进行地理加权回归分析，发现各指标的空间异质性显著，而这可能与社区本底属性相关。 - 关键词：
新型冠状病毒肺炎；社区；社区生活圈；规划；武汉市； - Abstract: Modern urban planning has its origin from dealing with urban sanitation and health problems. With the outbreak of COVID-19, urban sanitation and health again step into the spotlight of urban planning again. And for the purpose of avoiding similar pandemic, it becomes a pressing imperative to explore corresponding planning tools to counter it. According to the experience in countering the COVID-19 pandemic, residential community plays a key role during the pandemic. However, from planning perspective, there is still a lack of detailed quantitative identification of the key elements of the built environment that affect the spread of the pandemic. To this end, taking Wuhan city as an example, this paper intends to reveal the relationship between the pandemic spread within residential community and the elements of the built environmental of the community. First, by considering the timeline of the counterpandemic policies and the contagious spread characteristics of COVID-19, we propose a preliminary explanatory model of this process from three dimensions which are the source of contagion, the spread route and the counter-pandemic planning tools. In order to find the key elements that might be used as planning tools, we use exploratory regression analysis. It identifies two key elements that have significant influence upon the spread of COVID-19 pandemic on community scale. They are community building density and absolute wrinkle degree of the community daily-life circle. Finally, based on geographically weighted regression, it is found that the spatial heterogeneity of the five built-environmental elements in terms of their influence upon the spread of COVID-19 pandemic on community scale might be closely related to the physical environment of the community.
- Key words: COVID-19; community; community daily-life circle; planning; Wuhan
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