- 疫情防控常态化下的空间优化研究
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2022)06-0008-08
- 中图分类号：F294 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2022.06.002
- 项目基金：国家自然科学基金面上项目（41471109）。
- 作者简介：唐常春，博士，长沙理工大学建筑学院教授，硕士生导师，湖南省国土空间规划学会常务理事；
雷钧钧，长沙理工大学建筑学院硕士研究生；
陈珈琪，长沙理工大学建筑学院硕士研究生。
- 长江中游城市群新冠肺炎疫情时空演变特征及影响因素研究
- Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Infl uencing Factors of COVID-19 in Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River
- 浏览量：
- 唐常春 雷钧钧 陈珈琪
- TANG Changchun LEI Junjun CHEN Jiaqi
- 摘要：
新冠肺炎（COV ID-19）疫情发生后，长江中游城市群作为全国最重要的城市群发展战略区域之一，所受影响最为显著。在全球疫情仍在肆虐的当下，为探究疫情重灾区城市群疫情时空演变规律，文章通过搜集整理长江中游城市群2020 年典型时段疫情统计数据以及路网交通与经济社会等数据，利用GIS 可视化、空间自相关等方法分析新冠肺炎疫情动态变化过程与空间演变特征，并综合运用主成分分析和多元线性回归模型，系统分析城市群疫情发展演变的主要影响因素及机制。研究结果表明：（1）长江中游城市群新冠肺炎累计确诊病例总数呈现S 型变化态势，先后经历缓慢上升、快速上升和逐步放缓3 个阶段，之后疫情总体由紧急防控阶段转入常态化防控阶段。（2）城市群新冠肺炎发病率空间差异显著，累计确诊病例数呈“一主多次”、由北至南分层级扩散的空间分布及演变格局，新增病例地理分布经历先快速蔓延后逐步缩小的阶段性变化。（3）城市群新冠肺炎发病率和疫情受人为干预初期的累计确诊病例数具有较显著的空间自相关性。（4）城市群疫情发展演变影响因素主要包括人口密度、经济与收入水平、公共卫生条件、行政区划和防控干预措施等。受疫情扩散阶段和跨区人口流动管控影响，空间距离回归系数显著降低。应主要从实行传播通道严格管控和加强医疗卫生防治能力等方面采取强有力措施，并构建综合协同与长效机制，同时不断优化完善防控手段和疫情风险管控标准，科学精准做好疫情防控。 - 关键词：
新冠肺炎疫情；时空演变；空间自相关；影响因素；长江中游城市群； - Abstract: After the outbreak of COVID-19, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, as one of the most important development strategic regions in China, was most significantly affected. In order to explore the temporal and spatial evolution law of the epidemic situation in urban agglomerations, this paper collects and sorts out the epidemic statistics of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020 and the data of road network traffi c and economic and social development, and uses GIS and other methods to analyze the dynamic change process and spatial evolution characteristics of the epidemic situation. Using principal component analysis and multiple linear regression model, this paper systematically analyzes the main infl uencing factors and mechanisms of the epidemic evolution of study area. The results showed that: (1) The total number of COVID-19 cases in the study area showed a S-shaped change trend, which experienced three stages: slow rise, rapid rise and gradual slowdown. After that, the overall epidemic situation changed from emergency prevention and control stage to normalization prevention and control stage. (2) The spatial difference in the incidence of the epidemic in urban agglomerations was signifi cant. The cumulative number of confi rmed cases showed a spatial distribution and evolution pattern of hierarchical diff usion from north to south. The geographical distribution of new cases experienced a phased change of rapid spread fi rst and then gradually narrowing. (3) The incidence of COVID-19 in urban agglomerations has a signifi cant spatial autocorrelation, as does the cumulative number of confi rmed cases in the early stage of human intervention. (4) The infl uencing factors of urban agglomeration epidemic evolution mainly include population density, economy and income level, public health conditions, administrative divisions and prevention and control interventions. Aff ected by the epidemic spreading stage and cross-regional population fl ow control, the regression coeffi cient of spatial distance is signifi cantly reduced. Strong measures should be taken mainly from strict control of disease transmission channels and strengthening the ability of medical and health, and comprehensive coordination and long-term mechanism should be constructed. At the same time, prevention and control measures and risk control standards should be optimized and improved, and the epidemic prevention and control should be scientifi c and accurate.
- Key words: COVID-19; spatiotemporal evolution; spatial autocorrelation; inf luencing factor; urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River
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