- 绿色发展理念
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2025)06-0018-06
- 中图分类号：X24 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2025.06.003
- 项目基金：福建省自然资源厅资助项目“国土空间规划体系下的碳达峰碳中和研究课题” （2023350002000225）。
- 作者简介：樊海强，福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院，副教授，硕士生导师；
董慧莹，福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院，硕士研究生；
李小华，福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院，硕士研究生。
- “双碳”目标约束下城镇空间增长格局的情景模拟与预测——以福州市为例
- Scenario Simulation and Prediction of Urban Spatial Growth Pattern under the Constraint of “Dual Carbon” Goals: A Case Study of Fuzhou
- 樊海强 董慧莹 李小华
- FAN Haiqiang DONG Huiying LI Xiaohua
- 摘要：
中国提出 2030 年前实现“碳达峰”，2060 年前实现“碳中和”，“双碳”目标的提出对于推动经济绿色转型、促进生态文明建设、履行国际责任等都具有重要意义。文章采用情景模拟方法，试图探寻“双碳”目标下城镇空间发展的最优化路径。引入最小累积阻力模型（MCR），植入低碳约束因素，模拟了福州市 2035 年、2060 年城镇空间增长情景。结果显示：2035 年模拟方案比真实规划方案碳排放量减少 180.68×104 t，碳汇增加 0.56×104 t。2060 年比 2035 年碳排放量下降 1999.03×104 t，下降 73.82%；碳汇增加 1.00×104 t，增加 2.10%，但仍有 660.61×104 t 碳无法实现“碳中和”，需通过跨区域碳排放交易完成。研究对于其他区域探寻“双碳”目标的实现路径、优化调控城镇空间格局都具有积极的借鉴价值。 - 关键词：
碳达峰；碳中和；城镇空间；MCR 模型；福州市 - Abstract: China has proposed the goals of achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. The introduction of the “dual carbon” goals holds signifi cant importance for promoting green economic transformation, advancing ecological civilization, and fulfi lling international responsibilities. This article adopts a scenario simulation method to explore the optimal path of urban spatial development under the “dual carbon” goals. By introducing the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and embedding low-carbon constraint factors, it simulates the urban spatial growth scenarios of Fuzhou city for the years 2035 and 2060. The results show that the 2035 simulation scenario reduces carbon emissions by 180.68×104 tons and increases carbon sinks by 5600 tons compared to the actual planning scheme. In 2060, compared to 2035, carbon emissions decrease by 1999.03×104 tons, a reduction of 73.82%, and carbon sinks increase by 10000 tons, an increase of 2.10%. However, there still remains 660.61×104 tons of carbon that cannot be neutralized, which will need to be addressed through interregional carbon emission trading. This study provides positive reference value for other regions in exploring pathways to achieve the “dual carbon” goals and optimizing the regulation of urban spatial patterns.
- Key words: peak carbon dioxide emissions; carbon neutrality; urban space; MCR model; Fuzhou city