- 规划与建设
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2026)01-0063-06
- 中图分类号：K928.5 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2026.01.009
- 项目基金：国家自然科学基金项目（42271294）。
- 作者简介：马璟怡，南京师范大学地理科学学院，硕士研究生；
张莉，通信作者，南京师范大学地理科学学院，教授，硕士生导师；
李思源，南京师范大学地理科学学院。
- 中国城市收缩的时空演变综合测度及影响因素研究
- Comprehensive Measurement and Influencing Factors of the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage in China
- 马璟怡 张莉 李思源
- MA Jingyi ZHANG Li LI Siyuan
- 摘要：
随着城市化程度不断加深，中国城市收缩现象普遍。文章将 2011—2022 年作为时间尺度，建立人口—经济—社会空间三维综合评价指标体系，研究全国范围内地级市的时空收缩演变特征，兼谈其影响因素。研究发现，中国已有近半数的城市出现收缩现象，以东北和西部地区为主，大部分为暂时性收缩；收缩城市中单维收缩以人口收缩为主，双维以人口—社会及人口—经济收缩为主，个别城市出现三维收缩现象；整体时间尺度下中国城市呈现波动性发展态势，并在东北地区及中、西部地区分别形成“三角形”“环形”结构，所有资源型城市均出现不同程度、不同维度的收缩。 - 关键词：
城市收缩；城市发展指数；综合测度；时空分异 - Abstract: As urbanization has deepened, urban shrinkage has become a widespread phenomenon in China. Using the period from 2011 to 2022 as the time frame, this paper constructs a three-dimensional comprehensive evaluation index system incorporating population, economy, and social space to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of shrinkage among prefecture-level cities nationwide, and to explore its influencing factors. The results show that nearly half of Chinese cities have experienced shrinkage, mainly in the northeast and western regions, and that most cases are temporary. Among shrinking cities, single-dimension shrinkage is dominated by population decline, while dual-dimension shrinkage is primarily characterized by population–society and population–economy combinations; only a few cities exhibit shrinkage in all three dimensions. Over the entire study period, Chinese cities display a fluctuating development trend, forming a “triangular” structure in the northeast and a “ring-shaped” pattern in the central and western regions. All resource-based cities have undergone shrinkage of varying degrees and in different dimensions.
- Key words: urban shrinkage; urban development index; comprehensive measurement; spatiotemporal differentiation