- 规划与建设
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2026)02-0078-07
- 中图分类号：X321 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2026.02.011
- 项目基金：2024年度青岛市社会科学规划研究项目（QDSKL2401139）。
- 作者简介：孙宝娣，青岛理工大学建筑与城乡规划学院，副教授；
钟城豪，青岛理工大学建筑与城乡规划学院，硕士研究生；
陈赵慧，青岛理工大学建筑与城乡规划学院，硕士研究生；
程道心，青岛理工大学建筑与城乡规划学院，硕士研究生；
唐敬超，通信作者，青岛理工大学环境与市政工程学院，副教授。
- 基于DEMATEL-ISM法的老旧小区改造过程中碳排放影响因素及减碳路径研究
- Research on Infl uencing Factors of Carbon Emissions and Carbon Reduction Pathways in the Renovation Process of Old Residential Communities Based on the DEMATEL-ISM Method
- 孙宝娣 钟城豪 陈赵慧 程道心 唐敬超
- SUN Baodi ZHONG Chenghao CHEN Zhaohui CHENG Daoxin TANG Jingchao
- 摘要：
“城市更新 +3060”背景下老旧小区改造过程中碳排放影响因素作用机制尤其重要。研究以青岛市老旧小区为例，立足全生命周期视角，构建其改造过程中碳排放影响因素指标体系；基于 DEMATEL-ISM 模型并结合 Python 软件，计算不同阈值情况下影响因素的递阶层级，最终识别建造耗材选取及用量、施工方案及工艺、绿色低碳改造技术水平、改造方案设计、政策支持和管理能力为关键影响因素，并依据递阶层级提出用能优化、能效提升、多方联合、科技引领和生活“绿色”五大减碳路径。 - 关键词：
老旧小区改造；DEMATEL-ISM 法；碳排放；影响因素；减碳路径 - Abstract: Under the “Urban Renewal + 3060” framework, the mechanism of influencing factors on carbon emissions during the renovation of old residential communities is particularly crucial. This study takes old residential communities in Qingdao as a case study and constructs an indicator system for the influencing factors of carbon emissions during the renovation process from a full life-cycle perspective. Using the DEMATEL-ISM model combined with Python software, the hierarchical levels of influencing factors under different thresholds are calculated. The study identifies key influencing factors including the selection and quantity of building materials, construction plans and techniques, the technological level of green and low-carbon renovation, renovation design schemes, policy support, and management capabilities. Based on the hierarchical structure, five carbon reduction pathways are proposed: energy use optimization, energy efficiency improvement, multi-party collaboration, technology-driven innovation, and fostering a “green” lifestyle.
- Key words: renovation of old residential communities; DEMATEL-ISM method; carbon emissions; influencing factors; carbon reduction pathways