- 规划与建设
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2026)07-0040-08
- 中图分类号：TU984 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2026.07.006
- 项目基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“数智支持的可持续城市更新内在机理与体征识别方法研究”（52578064）；国家自然科学基金资助项目“公众数字化参与影响生活服务空间演化的多重作用机制研究”（72374137）；自然资源部碳中和与国土空间优化重点实验室开放基金“基于情景规划的碳中和未来城市空间发展策略”（CNTO-KFJJ-202301）；江苏省自然资源科研课题“面向自然资源数智化治理的时空大数据融合路径研究”（2025017）。
- 作者简介：蔡子攀，东南大学建筑学院研究员，博士生导师；
阳建强，通信作者，东南大学建筑学院教授，博士生导师；
潘浩之，上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院教授，博士生导师；
张海潮，东南大学建筑学院博士研究生。
- 基于多源数据耦合的城市更新潜力识别与分区——以南京市为例
- I dentifi cation and Zoning of Urban Renewal Potential Based
on Multi-Source Data Coupling: A Case Study of Nanjing
- 蔡子攀 阳建强 潘浩之 张海潮
- CAI Zipan YANG Jianqiang PAN Haozhi ZHANG Haichao
- 摘要：
在存量发展阶段，城市更新面临的难题并非“扩张结束还是更新开始”，而是扩张与更新在同一时期并行发生、在不同空间单元上叠加并相互牵制，致使更新资源与治理工具难以排序与精准投放。文章以南京为例，提出扩张倾向与更新潜力的双过程统一诊断框架，识别扩张主导、更新主导与稳定优化 3 类空间类型，并从强度阈值响应与邻域条件修正解释其形成机制。结果表明，更新潜力随人口强度呈显著的非线性阈值式跃迁；南京呈现中心更新集聚、外围通道扩张与广域过渡优化的梯度结构；扩张与更新总体表现为弱耦合并行而非简单替代。研究为优先更新指向与分区节奏制定提供量化依据。 - 关键词：
城市更新；更新潜力；空间分区；扩张与更新；人口强度；南京 - Abstract: In the stock-based development stage, the major challenge of urban renewal lies not in whether urban expansion has ended or renewal has begun, but in the fact that expansion and renewal occur simultaneously, overlap across different spatial units, and constrain each other, making it difficult to prioritize and precisely allocate renewal resources and governance instruments. Taking Nanjing as a case, this study proposes a unified dual-process diagnostic framework integrating expansion propensity and renewal potential. Based on this framework, three spatial types are identified, namely expansion-dominant, renewal-dominant, and stable-optimization areas, and their formation mechanisms are interpreted through intensity-threshold responses and neighborhood-condition adjustments. The results show that renewal potential exhibits a pronounced nonlinear threshold-like jump with increasing population intensity. Nanjing presents a gradient pattern characterized by concentrated renewal in the urban core, corridor-based expansion on the periphery, and broad transitional optimization areas. Overall, expansion and renewal are weakly coupled and largely parallel rather than simply substitutive. The study provides quantitative support for prioritizing renewal interventions and determining zoning and implementation pacing.
- Key words: urban renewal; renewal potential; spatial zoning; expansion and renewal; population intensity; Nanjing