- 区域
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2018)09-0047-09
- 中图分类号：F291 文献标识码：A
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2018.09.007
- 项目基金：国家社会科学基金项目（16XSH001）。
- 作者简介：李剑波（1985-），男，西南大学地理科学学院，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为城市与区域规划；
涂建军（1973-），男，通信作者，西南大学地理科学学院，教授、博士，主要研究方向为城市与区域规划。
- 成渝城市群新型城镇化发展协调度时序特征
- The Characteristics of the Time Series Towards New-type Urbanization Coordination Degree among Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration
- 浏览量：
- 李剑波 涂建军
- LI Jianbo TU Jianjun
- 摘要：
新型城镇化是人口、土地、经济、生态、社会五大要素协调推进的统一整体，本文运用层次分析—熵值法、协调度模型、灰色关联分析并结合障碍度模型对 2005-2014 年成渝城市群新型城镇化发展协调度的时序变化以及影响因子进行分析，并提出优化城镇化协调发展的建议。结果表明 ：① 2005-2014 年成渝城市群新型城镇化综合发展水平不断上升，经济城镇化与人口城镇化发展是影响成渝城市群城镇化水平提升的主要动力。②研究时段内成渝城市群城镇化发展协调度不断增长，子系统的两两协调关系变动趋势基本与之一致，其中人口城镇化与经济城镇化间的协调水平最高，城镇人口比重是最主要的影响因素 ；社会城镇化与土地城镇化两者间协调水平最低，最主要的影响因素为人均城市道路面积。③城镇人口比重、人均 GDP、职工平均工资、非农产业就业人口比例、非农人口规模等成为影响研究区城镇化发展协调度的主要障碍因子。成渝城市群应重点突破农业转移人口市民化，发展壮大先进制造业和现代服务业，控制农地过度非农化，提升公共服务体系建设和服务水平，推进生态文明建设，巩固和提升新型城镇化协调健康发展。 - 关键词：
协调度；新型城镇化；时序特征；成渝城市群； - Abstract: The new-type urbanization is a well-coordinated composite of urbanization each on demographic, land management, economy, ecology and society. Taking Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as the study sample area, methods of integrated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy value have been combined with the obstacle indicators of new-type urbanization, coordination degree model and gray correlation analysis to study and analyze the time series features changes an the relative factors in the new-type urbanization coordination degree among Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2015. Research conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) The comprehensive degree of urbanization among Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration completion is rising, demographic urbanization and economic urbanization are the major driving forces. (2) During the research period, the coordinated development degree of urbanization is on the rise, while the same time, the trend of coordinated development degree of each pair of urbanization subsystem has appeared. The highest coordinated development degree is between the demographic urbanization and economic urbanization, the proportion of urban population is the most important element. The lowest coordinated development degree is between the social urbanization a-and land urbanization and the Per capital road area of urban is the main cause. (3) The proportion of urban population, the per capital GDP, the average salary of labors, the proportion of non-agricultural employed population, the scale of non-agricultural population are the main obstacle factors affecting the coordinated development degree of urbanization. The Chengdu-Chongqing city agglomeration needs population urbanization as the core, with the new urbanization concept as a guide to promoting population urbanization. Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration should focus on breakthroughs in the urbanization of agricultural population transfer, the development and expansion of advanced manufacturing and modern service industry, control over agricultural non-agricultural, enhance the construction of public service system and service level, promote ecological civilization construction, consolidate and upgrade the level of the coordinated development degree of new-type urbanization.
- Key words: coordinated development degree; new-type urbanization; time series characteristics; Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration
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