- 区域
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2020)12-0079-10
- 中图分类号：F124 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2020.12.010
- 作者简介：戚红年，中交城市规划研究院有限公司，高级城市规划师，注册城市规划师；
彭越，中交城市规划研究院有限公司，副院长，注册城市规划师；
程寅，中交城市规划研究院有限公司，规划师；
莫雨婷，中交城市规划研究院有限公司，规划师。
- 长江经济带综合承载力时空分异特征及其作用机制研究
- Research on the Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of the Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Zone and its Mechanism
- 浏览量：
- 戚红年 彭越 程寅 莫雨婷
- QI Hongnian PENG Yue CHENG Yin MO Yuting
- 摘要：
为全面了解长江经济带综合承载力水平，从社会子系统、经济子系统、资源环境子系统等3 个子系统中选取27 个指标构建综合承载力评价体系，运用熵权TOPSIS 模型和结构方程模型对长江经济带2005—2015 年的社会承载力、经济承载力、资源环境承载力、综合承载力时空格局及其作用机制进行分析。研究表明：① 2005—2015 年间长江经济带综合承载力呈现东部引领、中西部加速追赶的时间变化特征；② 2005—2015年间长江经济带综合承载力热点区域分布在长三角地区，且具有一定的稳固性，冷点区域主要集中在西部地区，逐渐向中部地区转移；③对长江经济带综合承载力具有显著作用的指标为城市化水平、城市维护建设性支出、社会保障支出占财政支出比重、固定资产投资总额、全员劳动生产率、环境治理投资占GDP 比重。 - 关键词：
社会；经济；资源环境；承载力；时空格局；长江经济带； - Abstract: In order to comprehensively understand the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Zone, 27 indicators were selected from three subsystems: social subsystem, economic subsystem and resource environment subsystem to construct a comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation system. The entropy weight TOPSIS model and structural equation model are used to analyze the temporalspatial pattern and mechanism of social carrying capacity, economic carrying capacity, resource and environmental carrying capacity, and comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Zone from 2005 to 2015. The research indicates that: ①From 2005 to 2015, the time-varying characteristics of comprehensive carrying capacity in the Yangtze River Economic Zone showed leading the East and speeding up the catch in the Midwest; ②During 2005-2015, the hot spot area of the Yangtze River Economic Zone with comprehensive carrying capacity is distributed in the Yangtze River Delta region and has certain stability, the cold spot area is mainly concentrated in the western region and gradually transferred to the central region; ③The indicators that have a significant effect on the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Zone are urbanization level, urban maintenance and construction expenditure, social security expenditure as a proportion of fiscal expenditure, total fixed asset investment, total labor productivity, and environmental governance investment as a proportion of GDP.
- Key words: society; economy; resource environment; carrying capacity; temporal-spatial pattern; the Yangtze River Economic Zone
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