- 规划与建设
- 文章编号：1009-6000(2022)02-0074-09
- 中图分类号：K901 文献标识码：B
- Doi：10.3969/j.issn.1009-6000.2022.02.011
- 项目基金：西北大学防治新型冠状病毒肺炎紧急科研专项引导基金重点项目（2020）；西北大学“仲英青年学者”支持计划（2016）；西北大学“人地关系与空间安全”特色优势科研团队建设项目（2019）。
- 作者简介：于悦，西北大学城市与环境学院硕士研究生，主要研究方向为城市地理与公共安全规划；
李钢，通信作者，西北大学城市与环境学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究方向为人地关系与空间安全、灾害地理与犯罪地理、时空大数据与数字人文；
王皎贝，西北大学城市与环境学院硕士研究生；
徐婷婷，西北大学城市与环境学院硕士研究生；
金安楠，西北大学城市与环境学院硕士研究生。
- 阜阳市新冠肺炎疫情时空演化过程与防控对策
- Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Control Strategies of COVID-19 Epidemic in Fuyang City
- 浏览量：
- 于悦 李钢 王皎贝 徐婷婷 金安楠
- YU Yue LI Gang WANG Jiaobei XU Tingting JIN Annan
- 摘要：
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情已在多地蔓延，给人类健康安全和全球社会经济发展造成了极大的危害。解析疫情传播途径和时空演化过程对于疫情的深入研究和有效防控具有重要意义。文章基于阜阳市官方通报的155 例确诊病例详情及相关POI数据，综合应用数理统计、文本分析、空间分析等方法，深入探析阜阳市确诊病例的社会人口学特征与疫情的时空演化过程。结果表明：①确诊病例男性多于女性，集中分布在25~59 岁；以外地感染为主、本地感染为辅；聚集单元多为3~5 人，以亲友传播为主、邻里传播为辅。②在时间上，阜阳市疫情发展经历了“外省输入期—省内扩散期—稳定控制期”3 个阶段，确诊病例逐日数量变化呈现“四峰”波动态势；多数病例发病至就诊间隔0~3d ；累计治愈人数呈“先缓中猛后停”之势，大多病例于确诊后20d 内治愈。③在空间上，阜阳市疫情始终以西南部临泉县、阜南县最为高发；疫情小区表现为“3组团多片区”，呈西北—东南走向，且随时间逐渐向西部转移，与人群聚集地分布趋同。④ 97% 的疫情小区位于定点医疗机构30km（1h 车程）范围内，可基本满足病例就诊需求。最后，总结了阜阳市疫情的形成机制并提出针对性的防控策略，指出了今后需要深入研究的方向。 - 关键词：
新型冠状病毒肺炎；重大疫情；时空演化；防控对策；阜阳市； - Abstract: The sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), is spreading globally and has severe impacts on human health and social development. The analysis of the epidemic transmission route and the spatio-temporal evolution is of great signifi cance for the in-depth study and proposing eff ective prevention and control of the epidemic. Based on the details of 155 confirmed cases officially notified by Fuyang city and related POI data, this article comprehensively applies mathematical statistics, text analysis, and spatial analysis to analyze the socio-demographic characteristics of the confi rmed cases in Fuyang city and the temporal and spatial evolution of the epidemic. The results showed that: ① There are more males than females in the confi rmed cases, and they are concentrated in 25~59 years old group; the infection is mainly outside, and the local infection is supplemented; the gathering unit is mostly 3 to 5 people, mainly spread by relatives and friends, and supplemented by neighbourhood transmission. ② In terms of time, the development of the epidemic situation in Fuyang city has experienced three stages, and the number of confi rmed cases changed day by day, showing a “four peaks” wave dynamic trend. The cumulative number of cured patients showed a trend of “fi rst slowing down, then stopping quickly”, and most of the cases were cured within 20 days after diagnosis. ③ In terms of spatial distribution, Linquan county and Funan county in the southwest of Fuyang city have been the most severely aff ected counties. The epidemic communities were “three clusters and multiple areas”, trending from northwest to southeast, and gradually moved to the west over time, with crowds gathering places. ④ 97% of COVID-19 aff ected communities in Fuyang city are located within 30km (1 hour’s drive) of designated medical institutions, which can basically meet the demand of patients. Finally, it summarized the formation mechanism of COVID-19 in Fuyang city, pointing out the control measures and the direction of further research.
- Key words: COVID-19; major epidemic; spatial-temporal pattern; prevention & control measures ; Fuyang city
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